Lets Call it What it is

October 26th, 2012 at 9:05 am by under Tropical Tracker, Weather

The latest track on Sandy

Maybe you’ve read or heard the term “Frankenstorm” within the last 24 hours.

Here’s the thing – this is a potentially serious storm for the mid-Atlantic/Northeastern states, so I’m not going to call it something as parochial as “Frankenstorm”. I get that it’s a hybrid/Halloween reference, but still, lets call it what it is – a hurricane. It will likely downgrade to a post tropical storm or Nor’easter by the time it reaches cooler water.

(Besides, by next week, I’LL be the scariest thing out there… not Sandy!)

When I read the word ”Frankenstorm” yesterday, I made an eye roll felt ’round the world.

So, now we’re down to two Sandy scenarios… the 3rd one about Sandy heading out to sea is very unlikely. What’s the story morning glory? We are anticipating a big block near Greenland which will shift the jetstream in a south to north
direction – only a west to east jetstream would push this storm out to sea.

Scenario #1:
This seems to be the most likely scenario. Most of the computer models keep Sandy a category 1 hurricane as she tracks along the Florida and Carolina coastline. By early Monday morning, Sandy will be sitting just offshore of North Carolina. By Tuesday morning, the track makes a dog-leg left bringing Sandy onshore near the Delmarva peninsula. With this track, she will continue to move farther inland into Pennsylvania by Wednesday. This would be the best scenario for us in western Massachusetts – less rain, less wind.

Scenario #2:
The worst-case scenario for southern New England – a direct hit. The GFS model turns Sandy into southern New England Tuesday afternoon. If this happens, we will have contend with tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain, which could lead to coastal and inland flooding.

According to this computer model, the storm will get blocked in the Northeast for a few days – that means rain and wind through Thursday!

With either scenario, our primary concern will be the rain. If you remember Tropical Storm Irene, the wind didn’t do the most damage, it was the flooding rain!

-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor

Photos: Hurricane Sandy

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