Now the Horse is Catching Up With the Cart

October 25th, 2012 at 9:09 am by under Tropical Tracker, Weather

How close will Sandy get?

We are all deer in the headlights today - eyes wide open….waiting for something to happen….

That something is Sandy.

Is she going to run us over with her wind and rain, or are we going dodge this one?

I guess it would’ve been more appropriate to title this “Deer Catching Up With the Cart”, but who ever heard of a deer pulling a cart?!  (Ok, reindeer and sleigh aside..)

Every meteorologist is anxiously awaiting the next computer model run to see if Sandy will continue to track west, or push farther east.  Not the kind of babysitting job we want, but it is what it is.

I’m up to 3 Sandy scenarios now.  Unfortunately for us (in southern New England), 2 out of the 3 scenarios are not in our favor.

European model tracks Sandy

Scenario #1:
The European model wins.  I will say, the European model tends to do very well with long-range forecasts.  This model will basically keep Sandy parallel to the Florida and Carolina coastline, then arc it back into the Virginia/Delmarva area. 

Once the storm makes landfall, it will push farther inland into Pennsylvania by Tuesday night.  This scenario would mean rain and wind for us in southern New England from Monday to Wednesday.

 

 

 

Courtesy: National Hurricane Center

 Scenario #2:
This would be the worst-case scenario for New England.  Similar to the European model, the track would keep Sandy parallel to the Florida and Carolina coastline through Sunday.  By Monday, the storm will initially push east off the coast of the Carolinas, then dog leg left into New England.  This scenario would give us the heaviest rain and the strongest winds – we are talking several inches of rain along with sustained 50-60 MPH winds!  *IF* this happens, showers would start as early as Monday, then the heavy rain would take over for Tuesday and Wednesday.  There will be concern over tree and structural damage, inland and coastal flooding, beach erosion, and power outages. 

Keep in mind: this storm is at least 5 days away and things can change, so don’t board up the house and stock up on tuna fish just yet!!

 

Computer models track Sandy

Scenario #3:
The jetstream shifts to a west to east direction and kicks Sandy out to sea.  As of this morning, it’s becoming more and more unlikely that this will be the case, but hey, it’s still possible.

We’ll continue to track every computer model run as Sandy approaches.  In the meantime, this deer is going to take her tail and go munch on some grass.  I’ll catch up with my fellow deer tomorrow!

Stay out of the road!
-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor

One Response to “Now the Horse is Catching Up With the Cart”

  1. sue giguere says:

    Heres to hoping this storm goes off into the sea as we were hit pretty hard last storm when a huge oak tree came through our home!! We lost everything and just finally finished the house so we could live a normal life again!! So lets all keep our prayers coming for us and everyone else living wherever the storm decides to hit!!

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